A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
